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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 7

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 8-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI-76-T.Jenkins was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 7, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP