Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 59

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(11:56) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.21 EP
64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -2.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model