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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 54

Houston Texans 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(9:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Schultz.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.42 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model