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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 10-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.38 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model