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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 35 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model