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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 39

Houston Texans 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(:34) 16-M.Ammendola 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model