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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model