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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to LV 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.76 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP