Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to LV 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-D.Carter. Penalty on LV-34-B.Bolden, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model