Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 82

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

(14:32) 5-T.Morstead punts 61 yards to MIA 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 40 for 19 yards (21-A.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.12 EP
75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 82, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model