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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 64

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to MIA 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 18 for 8 yards (21-A.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.04 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model