4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 69

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to MIA 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 27 for 12 yards (55-C.Surratt).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.67 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model