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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 17 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.27 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model