Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 59

New York Jets 6 – Miami Dolphins 27

(12:48) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin to NYJ 49 for 8 yards (5-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.64 EP
65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 59, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP