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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 44

New York Jets 6 – Miami Dolphins 27

What Actually Happened

(11:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short left to 17-G.Wilson to MIA 35 for 9 yards (55-J.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.02 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model