Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 57

New York Jets 13 – Miami Dolphins 34

(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short left to 48-N.Bawden to NYJ 49 for 6 yards (29-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

What Happened

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.92 EP
75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 57, worth -1.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP