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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 4

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 10-T.Hill (1-A.Gardner).

The Three Options

GO +3.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.18 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model