4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 20

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.49 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 20, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP