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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model