Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 65

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(12:19) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to NO 10, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 16 for 6 yards (12-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.84 EP
67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 65, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model