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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 21

Atlanta Falcons 21 – New Orleans Saints 15

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.57 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model