Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 73

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to SEA 30, Center-46-T.Pepper. 31-D.Dallas MUFFS catch, touched at SEA 30, RECOVERED by SF-10-R.Bell at SEA 22. SF-30-G.Odum was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model