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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 42

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 29 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-48-O.Burks.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.60 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model