Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 13 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to SF 36, Center-41-C.Stoll. 3-R.McCloud to SF 38 for 2 yards (8-C.Bryant). FUMBLES (8-C.Bryant), touched at SF 38, recovered by SF-48-O.Burks at SF 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.08 EP
74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model