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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 13 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(4:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right end to SF 22 for -1 yards (97-N.Bosa, 2-D.Lenoir).

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.24 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model