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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.30 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model