Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 94

Seattle Seahawks 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(3:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to SEA 45, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +1.23 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 94, worth -5.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model