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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 25

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.16 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model