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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 44

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to DAL 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.19 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model