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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 39

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(8:19) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle to DAL 41 for -2 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa, 6-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.23 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model