Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Washington Commanders 10

(6:56) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to WAS 11, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 20 for 9 yards (44-T.Sieg; 99-C.Golston).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model