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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 69

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to DAL 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 17 for 5 yards (47-K.Hudson).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.82 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 27, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model