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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 3 at the 34
Dallas Cowboys 20 – Washington Commanders 10
What Actually Happened
(13:41) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The Three Options
GO
+1.56 EP
Model's Pick
-
53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.89 EP
- 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.12 EP
KICK
+1.34 EP
What Happened
- 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
- 26% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT
+0.42 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
