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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 66

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(12:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell sacked at WAS 24 for -10 yards (95-J.Hankins).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model