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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 35

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(8:55) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.66 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model