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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 16

New York Jets 2 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 7-T.Boyle up the middle to ATL 14 for 2 yards (48-B.Dupree; 93-C.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.95 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model