Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 86

New York Jets 5 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 5-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to ATL 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-D.Alford to ATL 41 for 10 yards (55-C.Surratt). PENALTY on NYJ-55-C.Surratt, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.77 EP
61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 86, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model