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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NYJ 15, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.75 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model