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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 37

New York Jets 5 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(13:01) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short left to 17-G.Wilson to ATL 28 for 9 yards (20-D.Alford).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.79 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model