Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Jets 8 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to ATL 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-D.Alford MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 24. 20-D.Alford ran ob at ATL 29 for 5 yards (55-C.Surratt).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 74, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model