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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New York Jets 8

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 13-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to NYJ 19, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-29-M.Abernathy.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.94 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model