Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 51

New York Jets 8 – Atlanta Falcons 13

(10:53) 5-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to ATL 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.90 EP
71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.74 EP

KICK -1.56 EP

26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
74% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model