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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 86

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New York Jets 8

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NYJ 44, Center-49-L.McCullough. 82-X.Gipson to ATL 48 for 8 yards (37-D.Hellams, 40-K.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.97 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 86, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model