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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 81

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New York Jets 8

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NYJ 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.82 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 81, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 38, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model