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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 52

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New York Jets 8

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NYJ 7, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.81 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model