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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 70

New York Jets 8 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass incomplete short left [48-B.Dupree]. Penalty on NYJ-66-J.Tippmann, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.39 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -1.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model