Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Jets 0

(8:50) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NYJ 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model