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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 44

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning sacked at JAX 49 for -5 yards (sack split by 44-T.Walker and 41-J.Allen).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.87 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model