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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Jacksonville Jaguars
4th & 1 at the 1
Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 21
What Actually Happened
(3:13) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.91 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.25 EP
KICK
+1.89 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT
-0.18 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
