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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 94

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to JAX 48, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-C.Jones to JAX 48 for no gain (46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.52 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 94, worth -5.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 52, worth -2.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model